Supreme Court Report

A window on the Court’s docket

Supreme Court Report

Every case the Supreme Court is asked to hear, what it asks, and the odds it is granted — rebuilt three times a day from the Court’s own docket.

Likeliest grants

Paid-docket cases filed in the last 7 days, against a 4.1% base rate. An estimate, not a prediction about any case.

Paid-docket cases filed in the last 28 days, against a 4.1% base rate. An estimate, not a prediction about any case.

Every pending paid-docket case the site holds, whenever filed, against a 4.1% base rate; each re-checked against its docket today. An estimate, not a prediction about any case.

  1. 59% 14× Department of Health and Human Services v. Texas Medical Association Judicial Power Whether the Administrative Procedure Act, 5 U.S.C. 701 et seq., authorizes courts, in Section 706(2), to enter universal vacatur of agency rules that courts have held unlawful and, if so, in what circumstances. No. 26-491
  2. 46% 11× Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated v. Department of Health and Human Services Whether “remuneration (including any kickback, bribe, or rebate) * * * to induce” in the criminal AKS means the same as “remuneration * * * to influence” in its civil analog, but without any exception for programs that promote “access to care,” criminalizing conduct Congress expressly protected from civil liability. No. 26-495
  3. 21% 5× Jump Trading, LLC v. Taewoo Kim Economic Activity Whether an arbitrator or a court must decide whether a nonsignatory may compel arbitration under an agreement that delegates “arbitrability” questions to an arbitrator. No. 26-507
  4. 13% 3× Eric S. Smith v. Securities and Exchange Commission Whether a statutory issue-exhaustion requirement bars a court of appeals from considering a constitutional claim challenging the inherent nature of the agency proceeding itself, if the party did not present that claim to the agency. No. 26-514
  5. 12% 3× Chichester School District v. S. M., by and through his Parents, Michael C. and Danielle C. Civil Rights Whether the IDEA’s exhaustion requirements under 20 U.S.C. §1415(f)(3)(B), (i) permits a party to pursue claims of a denial of a free and appropriate education (“FAPE”) and/or compensatory education through a district court during an appeal of a state administrative hearing officer’s opinion… No. 26-505
  1. 59% 14× Department of Health and Human Services v. Texas Medical Association Judicial Power Whether the Administrative Procedure Act, 5 U.S.C. 701 et seq., authorizes courts, in Section 706(2), to enter universal vacatur of agency rules that courts have held unlawful and, if so, in what circumstances. No. 26-491
  2. 46% 11× Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated v. Department of Health and Human Services Whether “remuneration (including any kickback, bribe, or rebate) * * * to induce” in the criminal AKS means the same as “remuneration * * * to influence” in its civil analog, but without any exception for programs that promote “access to care,” criminalizing conduct Congress expressly protected from civil liability. No. 26-495
  3. 28% 7× Julius Augillard v. United States Criminal Procedure Whether, under the categorical approach, a defendant must always produce an actual case to demonstrate a state statute’s overbreadth, even when the state statute is facially broader than the federal standard. No. 26-476
  4. 24% 6× Manny Diaz, Jr., Member of the Florida Board of Governors of the State University System v. Leroy Pernell First Amendment Whether public university professors have a special status under the First Amendment, such that the speech they express in the course of their official duties, unlike the official-duty speech of all other public employees, is protected by the First Amendment from regulation by their employer, the state. No. 26-475
  5. 21% 5× Jump Trading, LLC v. Taewoo Kim Economic Activity Whether an arbitrator or a court must decide whether a nonsignatory may compel arbitration under an agreement that delegates “arbitrability” questions to an arbitrator. No. 26-507
  1. 86% 21× United States v. Devonte Devon Jackson Miscellaneous Whether a person who becomes the first assistant after a vacancy arises is ineligible to be the acting officer under Section 3345(a)(1). No. 26-304
  2. 78% 19× Donald J. Trump, President of the United States v. Badar Khan Suri Civil Rights Whether, notwithstanding 8 U.S.C. 1252, an alien detained pending his removal proceedings may challenge that detention in a habeas petition based on claims that also go to the validity of his being removed. No. 26-380
  3. 69% 17× United States v. Office of the New York State Attorney General Miscellaneous Whether a person who becomes the first assistant after a vacancy arises is ineligible to be the acting officer under Section 3345(a)(1). No. 26-348
  4. 67% 16× Department of the Interior v. Shoshone-Bannock Tribes of the Fort Hall Reservation Whether the United States may invoke FLPMA to dispose of land that the government previously acquired from an Indian tribe, when the statute that approved the land’s earlier purchase stated that the land “shall be opened to settlement by the proclamation of the President, and shall be subject to disposal under the homestead, town-site, stone and timber… No. 26-96
  5. 64% 16× North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc., dba Crypto.com | Derivatives North America v. Nevada Federalism Whether the CEA preempts state regulation of sports-event contracts traded on a DCM. No. 26-344
  6. 63% 15× United States v. Nicolas Talbott Civil Rights Whether a Department of War policy that generally disqualifies from military service individuals who have gender dysphoria, a history of the condition, or a history of related interventions—issued by Secretary of War Hegseth in implementing Executive Order No. 14,183— violates the equal-protection component of the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment. No. 26-272
  7. 60% 15× Donald J. Trump, President of the United States v. Neeta Thakur, Individually and on Behalf of All Others Similarly Situated First Amendment Whether the First Amendment prohibits the government from considering the viewpoints furthered by academic research projects when deciding whether to grant or terminate funding for those projects through competitive grant programs. No. 26-210
  8. 59% 14× PacifiCorp, an Oregon Business Corporation v. Casey Sixkiller, Director, Washington State Department of Ecology Economic Activity Whether Tracy exempts a State from dormant Commerce Clause scrutiny when state law imposes different burdens on the same product based on whether the product is sold in state or out of state. No. 26-318
  9. 59% 14× Department of Health and Human Services v. Texas Medical Association Judicial Power Whether the Administrative Procedure Act, 5 U.S.C. 701 et seq., authorizes courts, in Section 706(2), to enter universal vacatur of agency rules that courts have held unlawful and, if so, in what circumstances. No. 26-491
  10. 56% 14× Alex Cantero, Individually and on Behalf of All Others Similarly Situated v. Bank of America, N.A. Federalism No. 25-1313

All petitions this week → · How the forecast works →

Recent decisions

The Court’s most recent written opinions, argued or not.

  1. Wed Oct 14 Federal Communications Commission v. Sherrod Brown Emergency application · Per curiam · Granted · Opinion The Fourth Circuit’s mandamus order requiring the Federal Communications Commission to resolve an application for review within 48 hours of its entry is stayed because the order improperly interferes with the Commission’s discretion to…
  2. Wed Oct 14 National Republican Congressional Committee v. Sherrod Brown Emergency application · Per curiam · Denied as moot
  3. Wed Sep 30 Kenneth Nelsen, Warden v. Christa Gail Pike Emergency application · Granted · Sotomayor, joined by Kagan and Jackson, dissenting
  4. Fri Sep 25 Department of Homeland Security v. League of Women Voters Emergency application · Per curiam · Granted · Jackson, joined by Sotomayor and Kagan, dissenting · Opinion The Court grants the Government’s application to stay the District Court’s order—which set aside and vacated the Government’s modified Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) program and its related notices—pending the…
  5. Fri Sep 25 People Not Politicians v. Robert Onder Emergency application · Per curiam · Granted · Opinion The Court grants the application for stay, and the prior stay entered by this Court on September 10, 2026, likewise remains in effect pending any further order of this Court lifting that stay.
  6. Mon Sep 14 United States Postal Service v. California Emergency application · Denied · Kavanaugh concurring; Alito, joined by Thomas, dissenting

All argued cases →

Recent arguments

Oral arguments of the last three weeks, with the Court’s recording and transcript. The lean is the chance the petitioner prevails, read from how the bench divided its words (petitioners usually win 70%); an estimate, not a prediction about any case.

  1. Wed Oct 14 Michael Salazar v. Paramount Global, dba 247Sports Argued by Joshua I. Hammack, Paul D. Clement · Lean 74% petitioner · Listen and read
  2. Tue Oct 13 Kendrick Jarrell Beaird v. United States Argued by Kevin Joel Page, Eric J. Feigin · Listen and read
  3. Wed Oct 7 Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan, fka Prutehi Litekyan Argued by Sopan Joshi, Caroline A. Flynn · Lean 65% petitioner · Listen and read
  4. Tue Oct 6 Winston R. Anderson v. Intel Corporation Investment Policy Committee Argued by Matthew W.h. Wessler, Charles L. Mccloud · Lean 56% petitioner · Listen and read
  5. Mon Oct 5 Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County Argued by Kannon K. Shanmugam, Kevin K. Russell · Lean 61% petitioner · Listen and read
  6. Mon Oct 5 Floyd D. Johnson v. United States Congress Argued by Jeffrey W. Chen, Kevin J. Barber · Lean 70% petitioner · Listen and read

All arguments →

Latest orders

What the Court granted, sent back and turned away, from its order lists.

  1. Tue Oct 13 Miscellaneous order 1 in pending cases · Kyle Wagner v. United States
  2. Tue Oct 13 Order list 3 granted · 4 GVRs · 166 denied · Granted U.S. DOGE Service v. United States District Court for the District of Columbia · Todd Blanche, Attorney General v. Izuchukwu Ozurumba · Corey Duran Berry v. United States
  3. Thu Oct 8 Miscellaneous order 1 order · Federal Communications Commission v. Sherrod Brown
  4. Wed Oct 7 Miscellaneous order 1 habeas denied · In Re Jamaal Howard

All order lists →

Upcoming at the Court

The next conferences, order lists and argument days on the Court’s calendar.

  1. Mon Oct 19 Order list Expected, from the October 16 conference
  2. Mon Nov 2 2 arguments Jasmine Younge v. Fulton Judicial Circuit District Attorney’s Office, Georgia · William Maxwell v. Sandra Dinis, Acting Warden
  3. Tue Nov 3 Argument St. Mary Catholic Parish, Littleton, Colorado v. Lisa Roy, in Her Official Capacity as Executive Director of the Colorado Department of Early Childhood
  4. Wed Nov 4 Argument Eric Guerrero, Director, Texas Department of Criminal Justice, Correctional Institutions Division v. Dexter Johnson
  5. Fri Nov 6 Conference 211 cases distributed
  6. Mon Nov 9 Order list Expected, from the November 6 conference

Most-Read Cases

Ranked by page views over the 30 days ending October 18, 2026.

  1. Jackson W. Holloway v. Nicholas W. Brown, Attorney General of Washington Criminal Procedure No. 26-300
  2. Department of Health and Human Services, et al. v. Texas Medical Association, et al. Judicial Power No. 26-491
  3. Roxane M. Marschner v. Richard A. Marschner Federalism No. 25-1349
  4. Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, et al. v. Badar Khan Suri Civil Rights No. 26-380
  5. John Ream v. Department of the Treasury, et al. Federalism No. 26-93

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