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North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc., dba Crypto.com | Derivatives North America v. Nevada, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 25-7187 · judgment August 28, 2026


64%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 52%–75%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 15.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a petition filed soon after the judgment below, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a circuit split argued in the petition.

Question presented

The Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) gives the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) “exclusive jurisdiction” to regulate the trading of “swaps” on federally regulated designated contract markets (DCMs). 7 U.S.C. § 2(a)(1)(A). A “swap” is any contract that provides payment “dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of an event or contingency associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence.” Id. § 1a(47)(A)(ii). Given that intentionally sweeping breadth, Congress has given the CFTC tools to clarify and refine the term’s reach. First, Congress has enacted a “special rule” empowering the CFTC to bar trading of certain swaps, including those that “involve … gaming.” Id. § 7a-2(c)(5)(C)(i)(V). Second, Congress has given the CFTC authority to “further define the term[] ‘swap.’” 15 U.S.C. § 8302(d)(1). The Third Circuit holds that the CEA’s plain text gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction, preempting state regulation, over trading on DCMs of “sportsevent contracts”—contracts that pay a fixed amount if a sports-related prediction is correct. That’s because sports-event contracts are “swaps” no different from, say, weather swaps. KalshiEX, LLC v. Flaherty, 172 F.4th 220 (3d Cir. 2026). But the Ninth Circuit disagrees, holding that sports-event contracts aren’t swaps, meaning states are free to regulate, ban, and even criminalize them. See KalshiEX, LLC v. Assad, No. 25-7516, 2026 WL 2543846 (9th Cir. Aug. 28, 2026) (published); App. 1a-5a. The question presented is whether the CEA preempts state regulation of sports-event contracts traded on a DCM.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Shay Dvoretzky
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP

For respondent
Adam Dmitri Hosmer-Henner
McDonald Carano LLP

Case

Subject area
Federalism (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
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Proceedings

  1. Oct 08 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including November 16, 2026, for all respondents.
  2. Oct 07 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from October 15, 2026 to November 16, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  3. Sep 11 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 15, 2026)