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PacifiCorp, an Oregon Business Corporation v. Casey Sixkiller, Director, Washington State Department of Ecology

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 24-4803 · judgment August 7, 2026


55%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 43%–67%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 13.3× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a petition filed soon after the judgment below, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a petition citing more than ten dissents, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Question presented

In General Motors Corp. v. Tracy, 519 U.S. 278 (1997), this Court held that a state-law exemption for in-state businesses did not implicate the dormant Commerce Clause because the favored businesses and the disfavored ones sold “different products” and “serve[d] different markets.” Id. at 298-299. The Fifth and Sixth Circuits have since confined Tracy to laws that distinguish between entities competing in “different retail markets.” NextEra Energy Capital Holdings, Inc. v. Lake, 48 F.4th 306, 319 (5th Cir. 2022); see Energy Michigan, Inc. v. Michigan Public Service Comm’n, 126 F.4th 476, 493 (6th Cir. 2025). Below, a divided Ninth Circuit rejected the Fifth and Sixth Circuits’ focus on whether the regulated party “produces the same product * * * for in-state and outof-state consumers.” App., infra, 11a. The court instead read Tracy to immunize Washington’s cap-andtrade system, which requires utilities to buy allowances for greenhouse-gas emissions when generating exported electricity but awards free allowances for electricity sold to Washington retail customers—even though retail electricity is “the same product sold across multiple geographic markets.” Id. at 42a (Bress, J., dissenting). The question presented is: Whether Tracy exempts a State from dormant Commerce Clause scrutiny when state law imposes different burdens on the same product based on whether the product is sold in state or out of state.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Theodore J. Boutrous Jr.
Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP

For respondent

Case

Conference history

Proceedings

  1. Sep 04 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 13, 2026)