Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →
Department of Health and Human Services, et al. v. Texas Medical Association, et al.
Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 23-40605 · judgment August 11, 2026
59%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 47%–70%
About 14.2× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a federal-government petitioner, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a petition filed soon after the judgment below.
Question presented
Whether the Administrative Procedure Act, 5 U.S.C. 701 et seq., authorizes courts, in Section 706(2), to enter universal vacatur of agency rules that courts have held unlawful and, if so, in what circumstances.
Counsel of record
For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General
For respondent
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Case
Subject area
Judicial Power (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)
Conference history
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Proceedings
- Oct 14 2026Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due November 13, 2026)