Supreme Court Report

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Alex Cantero, et al., Individually and on Behalf of All Others Similarly Situated v. Bank of America, N.A.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 21-400, 21-403 · judgment May 5, 2026


17%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 11%–26%
Conference-stage estimate: 30%
GVR risk 0%

About 4.2× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a petition filed soon after the judgment below, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a Second Circuit decision below, and down for a business respondent.

Question presented

Two years ago, in Cantero v. Bank of America, N.A., 602 U.S. 205 (2024), this Court vacated a Second Circuit decision holding that the National Bank Act preempts a New York law requiring mortgage lenders to pay a minimum interest rate on funds held in mortgage-escrow accounts. The Court explained that the Second Circuit had taken too expansive a view of the preemption standard codified in Dodd-Frank, under which a state law like New York’s is preempted “only if ” it “prevents or significantly interferes with” a national banking power. 12 U.S.C. § 25b(b)(1)(B); see Cantero, 602 U.S. at 220-21. On remand, a divided Second Circuit panel again held that New York’s interest-on-escrow law is preempted. In doing so, the panel majority adopted an “approach that is just as capacious” as the prior approach that this Court unanimously rejected. App. 29a (Pérez, J., dissenting). And the panel majority expressly “disagree[d]” with a First Circuit case that applied this Court’s decision in Cantero to “reach[] the opposite conclusion” as to another state’s materially similar escrow-on-interest law. App. 27a. The question presented, once again, is: Does the National Bank Act preempt the application of state interest-on-escrow laws to national banks?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Jonathan Ellis Taylor
Gupta Wessler LLP

For respondent
William McGinley Jay
Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
2 cert-stage

Proceedings

  1. Aug 26 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  2. Aug 26 2026
    Reply of petitioners Alex Cantero, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  3. Aug 10 2026
    Brief of respondent Bank of America, N.A. in opposition filed.
  4. Jul 15 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is further extended to and including August 10, 2026.
  5. Jul 14 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from July 27, 2026 to August 10, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  6. Jun 26 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Conference of State Bank Supervisors filed.
  7. Jun 26 2026
    Brief amici curiae of New York, et al. filed.
  8. Jun 22 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including July 27, 2026.
  9. Jun 18 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from June 26, 2026 to July 27, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  10. May 22 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due June 26, 2026)