Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →

United States, et al. v. Nicolas Talbott, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 25-5087 · judgment June 1, 2026


59%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 47%–71%
Rule 10: dissent below

About 14.3× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a federal-government petitioner, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a D.C. Circuit decision below.

Question presented

Whether a Department of War policy that generally disqualifies from military service individuals who have gender dysphoria, a history of the condition, or a history of related interventions—issued by Secretary of War Hegseth in implementing Executive Order No. 14,183— violates the equal-protection component of the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

For respondent

Case

Conference history

Proceedings

  1. Aug 27 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 1, 2026)