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United States, et al. v. Nicolas Talbott, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 25-5087 · judgment June 1, 2026


63%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 50%–74%
Rule 10: dissent below

About 15.2× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a federal-government petitioner, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a D.C. Circuit decision below.

Question presented

Whether a Department of War policy that generally disqualifies from military service individuals who have gender dysphoria, a history of the condition, or a history of related interventions—issued by Secretary of War Hegseth in implementing Executive Order No. 14,183— violates the equal-protection component of the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

For respondent
Jonathan D. Hacker
O'Melveny & Myers LLP

Case

Subject area
Civil Rights (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Amicus briefs
2 cert-stage

Proceedings

  1. Oct 01 2026
    Brief amici curiae of West Virginia, et al. filed.
  2. Oct 01 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn (USA-ret.), et al. filed.
  3. Sep 25 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including November 2, 2026.
  4. Sep 24 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from October 1, 2026 to November 2, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  5. Aug 27 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 1, 2026)