No. 23-726 · argued April 24, 2024
Mike Moyle, Speaker of the Idaho House of Representatives, et al., Petitioners v. United States
Post-argument lean
From the argument alone, before the decision
58%
chance the petitioner prevails, from how the bench divided its words
Dismissed Writs of certiorari DISMISSED as improvidently granted, and the stays entered by the Co...
Disposed of without deciding who wins, so there is nothing to score the lean against.
Disposed of without deciding who wins, so there is nothing to score the lean against.
The Justices’ words, by the side they were spoken to
61%
39%
To the petitioner · 5,758 words, 147 turns141 turns, 3,671 words · to the respondent
The bench spoke 1.6× as many words to the petitioner as to the other side. Since OT2017 the side that draws more of the bench’s words has tended to lose, so this argument reads below the usual 70% petitioner win rate.
Each Justice’s questioning
Votes appear once the case is decided
| Justice | Words to the petitioner ◂ │ ▸ to the respondent | Lean to petitioner |
|---|---|---|
| Roberts, C.J. | 64%-6 | |
| Thomas | 59%+0 | |
| Alito | 67%+6 | |
| Sotomayor | 39%-20 | |
| Kagan | 43%-18 | |
| Gorsuch | 67%+1 | |
| Kavanaugh | 60%-9 | |
| Barrett | 67%-1 | |
| Jackson | 50%-12 |
A Justice’s lean is the chance they vote for the petitioner, from their own word split and the whole bench’s; the small figure is the change from their usual petitioner rate. Click a row to pick out that Justice in the transcript.
Listen and read
532 turns
Press play, or click any line of the transcript to start there
The Court’s recording · each line timed to the audio
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From the Court’s official transcript.
October Term 2023, lean against result
Each dot an argument; click one to open it
17 of 19
leaned 75% or more to the petitioner, and the petitioner won
2 of 3
leaned toward the respondent, and the respondent won
45 of 58
decided cases where the lean pointed the right way (always picking the petitioner: 44)
About this page. Built from the Court’s own transcript and recording.
- The lean. Backtested leave-one-Term-out on 511 decided arguments (OT2017–OT2025): 72% of outcomes called right against 70.5% for “the petitioner always wins”, with forecast error (Brier score) 0.197 against 0.209. It refines a strong base rate more than it flips calls. Each Justice’s lean: 67.5% of 4,408 votes against 63.4% for their usual rate.
- Words, not questions. Every Justice turn in an advocate’s time counts toward that advocate’s side; amicus time counts for neither. Counting turns adds nothing once words are counted, and the raw rule “more questions loses” does worse than the base rate, because petitioners argue first and have rebuttal.
- Timing. Each line is timed to the recording: speech recognition matched the Court’s audio to its transcript, and its own text is used for nothing but the clock. Click a line to hear it.
- Method and findings: docs/argument-transcripts.md.