No. 22-704 · argued November 1, 2023
Katherine K. Vidal, Under Secretary of Commerce for Intellectual Property and Director, United States Patent and Trademark Office, Petitioner v. Steve Elster
Post-argument lean
From the argument alone, before the decision
65%
chance the petitioner prevails, from how the bench divided its words
Petitioner won Judgment REVERSED. Thomas, J., announced the judgment of the Court and delivered the op...
The Justices’ words, by the side they were spoken to
56%
44%
To the petitioner · 2,607 words, 62 turns60 turns, 2,033 words · to the respondent
The bench spoke 1.3× as many words to the petitioner as to the other side. Since OT2017 the side that draws more of the bench’s words has tended to lose, so this argument reads below the usual 70% petitioner win rate. The lean pointed the right way.
Each Justice’s questioning
Lean beside the vote each Justice cast
| Justice | Words to the petitioner ◂ │ ▸ to the respondent | Lean to petitioner | Voted for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roberts, C.J. | 69%+0 | Petitioner ✓ | |
| Thomas | 58%-1 | Petitioner ✓ | |
| Alito | 58%-3 | Petitioner ✓ | |
| Sotomayor | 57%-1 | Petitioner ✓ | |
| Kagan | 58%-3 | Petitioner ✓ | |
| Gorsuch | 60%-6 | Petitioner ✓ | |
| Kavanaugh | 69%+0 | Petitioner ✓ | |
| Barrett | 36%-32 | Petitioner ✗ | |
| Jackson | 62%+1 | Petitioner ✓ |
A Justice’s lean is the chance they vote for the petitioner, from their own word split and the whole bench’s; the small figure is the change from their usual petitioner rate. Click a row to pick out that Justice in the transcript.
Listen and read
226 turns
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The Court’s recording · each line timed to the audio
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From the Court’s official transcript.
October Term 2023, lean against result
Each dot an argument; click one to open it
17 of 19
leaned 75% or more to the petitioner, and the petitioner won
2 of 3
leaned toward the respondent, and the respondent won
45 of 58
decided cases where the lean pointed the right way (always picking the petitioner: 44)
About this page. Built from the Court’s own transcript and recording.
- The lean. Backtested leave-one-Term-out on 511 decided arguments (OT2017–OT2025): 72% of outcomes called right against 70.5% for “the petitioner always wins”, with forecast error (Brier score) 0.197 against 0.209. It refines a strong base rate more than it flips calls. Each Justice’s lean: 67.5% of 4,408 votes against 63.4% for their usual rate.
- Words, not questions. Every Justice turn in an advocate’s time counts toward that advocate’s side; amicus time counts for neither. Counting turns adds nothing once words are counted, and the raw rule “more questions loses” does worse than the base rate, because petitioners argue first and have rebuttal.
- Timing. Each line is timed to the recording: speech recognition matched the Court’s audio to its transcript, and its own text is used for nothing but the clock. Click a line to hear it.
- Method and findings: docs/argument-transcripts.md.