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David A. Katz v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 25-981 · judgment July 1, 2026


11%
estimated cert probability
(at filing, petition-stage)
95% interval 7%–17%
Rule 10: circuit split argued

About 2.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a circuit split argued in the petition, a Ninth Circuit decision below, and a petition citing three to ten dissents.

Question presented

After a six-day trial, a jury found Petitioner guilty of conspiracy to defraud the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”), in violation of 18 U.S.C. 371. The jury’s general verdict did not include factual findings relating to the tax loss (if any) that resulted from Petitioner’s offense. The district court ordered Petitioner to pay $44.87 million in restitution to the IRS pursuant to the Mandatory Victims Restitution Act (“MVRA”), 18 U.S.C. 3663A. The restitution amount was based on multiple disputed judicial findings of fact. Over Petitioner’s Sixth Amendment objections, the district court made those factual findings at Petitioner’s sentencing hearing on a preponderance standard. The Ninth Circuit affirmed, relying entirely on a prior circuit decision that the Sixth Amendment’s jury trial right does not apply to criminal restitution, precedent that one member of Petitioner’s appellate panel called “mistaken.” The question presented is: Whether, in light of this Court’s holding in Ellingburg v. United States that “MVRA restitution is criminal punishment,” the Sixth Amendment requires a jury to find the disputed facts necessary to support the sentencing court’s restitution order.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Daniel Nathan Marx
Fick & Marx LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Subject area
Criminal Procedure (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
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Proceedings

  1. Nov 09 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due December 14, 2026)