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National Park Service, et al. v. National Trust for Historic Preservation in the United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 26-5123, 26-5134 · judgment August 7, 2026

24%
estimated cert probability
(at filing, petition-stage)
95% interval 15%–35%
Rule 10: dissent below

About 5.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a D.C. Circuit decision below, and a petition citing more than ten dissents.

Question presented

Whether the district court erred in enjoining the ongoing renovation of the East Wing at the White House.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

For respondent
—

Case

Conference history
—

Proceedings

  1. Nov 05 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due December 7, 2026)
    PetitionProof of Service