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Jump Trading, LLC, et al. v. Taewoo Kim, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, No. 25-1964 · judgment August 13, 2026


21%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 13%–33%
Rule 10: circuit split argued

About 5.2× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a petition filed soon after the judgment below, and a circuit split argued in the petition.

Questions presented

Traditional contract law principles allow someone who has not signed a contract to enforce it against a signatory party in certain situations. These nonsignatory-enforcement principles—including the equitable-estoppel doctrine—apply to arbitration agreements. But federal and state courts are in open and acknowledged conflict over how to adjudicate nonsignatories’ requests to compel arbitration under the Federal Arbitration Act (FAA). There is a 7-6 split on whether a court or arbitrator decides the threshold nonsignatory-enforcement issue when the arbitration agreement delegates “arbitrability” questions to arbitrators, and a 4-2 split on whether federal or state law governs equitable estoppel in agreements subject to the United Nations Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards (“New York Convention” or “Convention”). In its decision below, the Seventh Circuit rejected arbitration and deepened the circuit splits on both issues. Its decision is at odds with the FAA, the New York Convention, and contract principles allowing nonsignatory enforcement. The questions presented are:

  1. Whether an arbitrator or a court must decide whether a nonsignatory may compel arbitration under an agreement that delegates “arbitrability” questions to an arbitrator.

  2. Whether a uniform federal common law of equitable estoppel allows a nonsignatory defendant to enforce an arbitration agreement subject to the New York Convention when the signatory plaintiff alleges that the nonsignatory defendant engaged in concerted misconduct with a signatory.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Roman Martinez V
Latham & Watkins, LLP

For respondent
—

Case

Subject area
Economic Activity (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Proceedings

  1. Oct 08 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due November 16, 2026)