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Markwayne Mullin, Secretary, Department of Homeland Security, et al. v. National TPS Alliance, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 25-5724 · judgment January 28, 2026


GVR'd · October 5, 2026
Pre-decision estimate: 14% cert probability (95% interval 9%–22%)

Before the decision, about 3.5× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for a federal-government petitioner, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a Ninth Circuit decision below, and down for a petition of 3,000 to 6,000 words.

Question presented

Whether the court of appeals erred in affirming the district court’s order setting aside the Secretary of Homeland Security’s vacatur and termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuela and partial vacatur of TPS for Haiti. (I)

Counsel of record

For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

For respondent
Ahilan T. Arulanantham
UCLA School of Law

Case

Subject area
Civil Rights (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference (2 distributions)

Amicus briefs
1 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1334

Order
Order list, October 5, 2026 · Summary disposition

Proceedings

  1. Oct 05 2026
    Petition GRANTED. Judgment VACATED and case REMANDED for further consideration in light of Mullin v. Doe, 609 U. S. 324 (2026).
  2. Sep 09 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  3. Aug 20 2026
    Response to Petition for Certiorari filed.
  4. Aug 14 2026
    Response Requested. (Due September 14, 2026)
  5. Aug 12 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  6. Aug 12 2026
    Brief amici curiae of America's Future, et al. filed.
  7. Aug 10 2026
    Letter of August 10, 2026 from counsel for respondents Nat. TPS Alliance, et al. filed.
  8. Jul 09 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 12, 2026)
  9. Jun 02 2026
    Application (25A1334) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until July 9, 2026.
  10. May 27 2026
    Application (25A1334) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from June 9, 2026 to July 9, 2026, submitted to Justice Kagan.