Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →
Markwayne Mullin, Secretary, Department of Homeland Security, et al. v. National TPS Alliance, et al.
Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 25-5724 · judgment January 28, 2026
41%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 32%–50%
Conference-stage estimate: 30%
Rule 10: dissent below
GVR risk 4%
About 9.9× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a federal-government petitioner, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a Ninth Circuit decision below.
Question presented
Whether the court of appeals erred in affirming the district court’s order setting aside the Secretary of Homeland Security’s vacatur and termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuela and partial vacatur of TPS for Haiti. (I)
Counsel of record
For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General
For respondent
Ahilan T. Arulanantham
UCLA School of Law
Proceedings
- Aug 20 2026Response to Petition for Certiorari filed.
- Aug 14 2026Response Requested. (Due September 14, 2026)
- Aug 12 2026DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
- Aug 12 2026Brief amici curiae of America's Future, et al. filed.
- Aug 10 2026Letter of August 10, 2026 from counsel for respondents Nat. TPS Alliance, et al. filed.
- Jul 09 2026Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 12, 2026)
- Jun 02 2026Application (25A1334) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until July 9, 2026.
- May 27 2026Application (25A1334) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from June 9, 2026 to July 9, 2026, submitted to Justice Kagan.