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Nunzio Calce, et al. v. City of New York, New York, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 25-861 · judgment April 13, 2026


23%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 16%–32%
Conference-stage estimate: 3%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
GVR risk 0%

About 5.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Second Circuit decision below, and a circuit split argued in the petition, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Questions presented

  1. Whether a challenger to a ban on a type of arm must demonstrate that the arm is “in common use” to establish that the ban implicates the Second Amendment’s plain text.

  2. Whether the challenged New York State and New York City bans on electronic arms such as tasers and stun guns implicate the Second Amendment’s plain text.

  3. Whether the challenged New York State and New York City bans on electronic arms such as tasers and stun guns violate the right to keep and bear arms protected by the Second and Fourteenth Amendments.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
David H. Thompson
Cooper & Kirk, PLLC

For respondent
Elina Druker
New York City Law Department

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
2 cert-stage

Proceedings

  1. Aug 19 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  2. Aug 10 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Byrna Technologies, Inc., et al. filed.
  3. Aug 07 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Gun Owners of America, et al. filed.
  4. Aug 06 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent City of New York to respond filed.
  5. Jul 07 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 10, 2026)