Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →

Petersen Energia Inversora, S.A.U., et al. v. Argentine Republic, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 23-7370, 23-7463, 23-7614, 23-7376, 23-7471, 23-7667 · judgment March 27, 2026


25%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 18%–34%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 6.1× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a Second Circuit decision below.

Questions presented

In the 1990s, Argentina privatized its stateowned oil company YPF, S.A. (“YPF”) to raise billions in capital from foreign investors on the NYSE and elsewhere. To ensure that privatization would succeed, Argentina amended YPF’s bylaws to promise investors that if Argentina ever decided to renationalize YPF, it would offer investors a compensated exit through a tender offer at a price set by a predetermined investor-protective formula. But when Argentina seized back control of a majority stake in YPF in 2012, it openly flouted its tender-offer obligations, causing petitioners billions of dollars of harm. Despite a prior panel’s unanimous holding that the district court had jurisdiction under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (“FSIA”) to hear petitioners’ breach-of-contract claims, the divided Second Circuit panel below invalidated a decade’s worth of litigation, and the largest commercial judgment in U.S. history (a $16.1 billion damages award against Argentina), holding that petitioners could only enforce Argentina’s promises in Argentine court. The questions presented are:

  1. Whether a foreign sovereign can circumvent federal FSIA jurisdiction by requiring that certain claims against the sovereign must be brought in the sovereign’s own courts.

  2. Whether a foreign sovereign is entitled to deference when it presents a self-serving account of its own law for the first time on appeal, notwithstanding ordinary principles of waiver and forfeiture.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Paul D. Clement
Clement & Murphy, PLLC

For respondent
Robert J. Giuffra Jr.
Sullivan & Cromwell

Case

Subject area
Economic Activity (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Linked docket
26A204

Proceedings

  1. Sep 30 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due November 2, 2026)
  2. Aug 17 2026
    Application (26A204) granted by Justice Sotomayor extending the time to file until September 30, 2026.
  3. Aug 11 2026
    Application (26A204) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from August 31, 2026 to September 30, 2026, submitted to Justice Sotomayor.