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Interstate Fire & Casualty Company, et al. v. Crescent City Surgical Operating Company

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 25-30044 · judgment April 22, 2026


6%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 4%–10%
Rule 10: circuit split argued

About 1.5× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a Fifth Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a business petitioner, and down for a business respondent.

Question presented

Whether federal common law or state law supplies the rule of equitable estoppel that determines when a nonsignatory may enforce an arbitration agreement governed by the Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Lori Daigle Barker
Wood, Smith, Henning & Berman LLP

For respondent
—

Case

Subject area
Economic Activity (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Linked docket
26A64

Proceedings

  1. Sep 21 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 26, 2026)
  2. Aug 14 2026
    Application (26A64) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until September 19, 2026.
  3. Aug 07 2026
    Application (26A64) to extend further the time from August 20, 2026 to September 19, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.
  4. Jul 16 2026
    Application (26A64) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until August 20, 2026.
  5. Jul 10 2026
    Application (26A64) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 21, 2026 to August 20, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.