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Affirmed Energy, LLC v. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 25-1091 · judgment February 10, 2026


28%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 19%–40%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 6.8× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a D.C. Circuit decision below, and a circuit split argued in the petition.

Question presented

Ratemaking by federal agencies, including of interstate energy markets, is typically governed by the “filed rate doctrine.” The doctrine constrains regulated entities from charging a rate that is unjust or unreasonable, or that deviates from the terms officially on file with the regulating agency, including through a tariff. The doctrine, which extends to rate-related classifications, practices, and regulations, has long been held to prohibit retroactive changes by federal agencies, including, as relevant here, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. That prohibition is of paramount importance to maintaining the stability and predictability of the Nation’s multi-billion-dollar energy markets, among other things. In the decision below, the D.C. Circuit held, in conflict with the Third Circuit, that FERC’s approval of a change to a tariff governing certain wholesale energy capacity auctions was not retroactive, even though the change divested a participant in those auctions of a vested right it had acquired under the prior tariff rules. In doing so, the Circuits divided on the antecedent question of when a change in law is retroactive, a question with far-reaching implications beyond the filed rate doctrine. The question presented is: Whether, as the Third Circuit held, a legal change is retroactive if it eliminates an entitlement acquired under prior law through a completed past act, even if the entitlement would have been exercised only in the future, or whether, as the D.C. Circuit held, a legal change is retroactive only if it alters the past legal consequences of the completed act.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Seth P. Waxman
Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Subject area
Economic Activity (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Linked docket
26A109

Proceedings

  1. Oct 15 2026
    Motion of Federal Respondents for an extension of time submitted.
  2. Oct 13 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including November 23, 2026, for all respondents.
  3. Oct 09 2026
    Motion of PJM Interconnection, LLC, et al. to extend the time to file a response from October 23, 2026 to November 23, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  4. Sep 18 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 23, 2026)
  5. Jul 24 2026
    Application (26A109) granted by The Chief Justice extending the time to file until September 18, 2026.
  6. Jul 21 2026
    Application (26A109) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from August 5, 2026 to September 18, 2026, submitted to The Chief Justice.