Supreme Court Report

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Raul Rivera-Perez v. Caryn Flowers, Warden

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 25-149 · judgment March 26, 2026


9%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 5%–15%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
At the Nov 6 conference: granted 0.18% · GVR 0.44% · relisted 71% · denied 28%
Granted ever, conference-stage estimate: 2.5%

About 2.2× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a circuit split argued in the petition, a Second Circuit decision below, and a petition citing three to ten dissents, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Question presented

Whether time credits earned under the First Step Act of 2018, Pub. L. No. 115-391, 132 Stat. 5194, can be applied under 18 U.S.C. 3632(d)(4)(C) to reduce a term of supervised release.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Ashley Elizabeth Robertson
Federal Public and Community Defenders

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Subject area
Criminal Procedure (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Linked docket
26A186

Proceedings

  1. Oct 13 2026
    Response Requested. (Due November 12, 2026)
  2. Oct 09 2026
    Letter of Raul Rivera-Perez submitted.
  3. Oct 07 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 11/6/2026.
  4. Sep 30 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Federal Respondents to respond filed.
  5. Sep 17 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 22, 2026)
  6. Aug 11 2026
    Application (26A186) granted by Justice Sotomayor extending the time to file until September 17, 2026.
  7. Aug 07 2026
    Application (26A186) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from August 18, 2026 to September 17, 2026, submitted to Justice Sotomayor.