Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →

Kyle Wagner v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, No. 26-1294 · judgment August 12, 2026


47%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 34%–60%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
At the Nov 6 conference: granted 2.1% · GVR 0.12% · relisted 14% · denied 84%
Granted ever, conference-stage estimate: 24%

About 11.3× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a petition filed soon after the judgment below, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a circuit split argued in the petition.

Question presented

The Bail Reform Act of 1984 authorizes the detention of a person charged with a criminal offense pending trial if a “judicial officer finds that no condition or combination of conditions will reasonably assure the appearance of the person” for trial “and the safety of any other person and the community.” 18 U.S.C. § 3142(e)(1), (f). If the detainee or the government disagrees with the district court’s judgment on that issue, they may “appeal from a release or detention order,” and ask the court of appeals to review that decision. Id. § 3145(c). But “[t]he circuits have long been split on just how searching that review is.” United States v. Wilks, 15 F.4th 842, 847 (7th Cir. 2021). “Some courts” apply de novo review, others apply “the clearly erroneous or other highly deferential standard,” and still others occupy a middle ground, conducting “independent review” tempered by “deference” to the district court. United States v. O’Brien, 895 F.2d 810, 812-814 (1st Cir. 1990). The question presented is: Whether an appellate court should review a district court’s order granting or denying pretrial release de novo—as the Sixth, Eighth, Ninth, Tenth, and Eleventh Circuits have held—or whether the appellate court owes some deference to the district court’s determination, as the First, Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth, Seventh and D.C. Circuits have held?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Jo-Ann Tamila Sagar
Hogan Lovells Cadwalader US LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Subject area
Criminal Procedure (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Linked docket
26A446

Proceedings

  1. Oct 13 2026
    Application (26A446) referred to the Court.
  2. Oct 13 2026
    Application (26A446) for stay presented to Justice Kavanaugh and by him referred to the Court is denied.
  3. Oct 09 2026
    Reply of applicant Kyle Wagner filed.
  4. Oct 08 2026
    Response to application from respondent United States filed.
  5. Oct 07 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 11/6/2026.
  6. Oct 06 2026
    Letter of applicant Kyle Wagner filed.
  7. Oct 06 2026
    Letter of Kyle Wagner submitted.
  8. Oct 02 2026
    Response to application (26A446) requested by Justice Kavanaugh, due by 4 p.m. (EDT) on October 8, 2026.
  9. Oct 02 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent United States to respond filed.
  10. Sep 29 2026
    Application (26A446) for a stay, submitted to Justice Kavanaugh.
  11. Sep 29 2026
    Motion to expedite consideration of petition for a writ of certiorari filed by petitioner.
  12. Sep 18 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 22, 2026)