Supreme Court Report

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Karnail Singh v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, No. 25-1523 · judgment May 5, 2026


4%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
Rule 10: circuit split argued

Roughly the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a Sixth Circuit decision below, and down for a petition of 3,000 to 6,000 words.

Question presented

Whether the Sixth Amendment requires attorneys to inform clients who are naturalized citizens that pleading guilty carries a risk of denaturalization.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Lisa S. Blatt
Williams & Connolly LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Subject area
Criminal Procedure (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Proceedings

  1. Oct 15 2026
    Motion of United States for an extension of time submitted.
  2. Sep 15 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 19, 2026)