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Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Mike Dreitzer, Chairman, Nevada Gaming Control Board, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 25-7831 · judgment August 28, 2026


41%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 29%–54%
Rule 10: circuit split argued

About 9.9× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a petition filed soon after the judgment below, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a circuit split argued in the petition, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Question presented

The Commodity Exchange Act gives the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) “exclusive jurisdiction” over “transactions involving swaps or contracts of sale of a commodity for future delivery” that are “traded or executed on a contract market” regulated by the CFTC. 7 U.S.C. § 2(a)(1)(A). Petitioner Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a federally regulated futures commission merchant, facilitates trading of sports-related event contracts on federally regulated contract markets. Nevada seeks to enforce state gaming laws against this activity on contract markets regulated by the CFTC. The question presented is whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts the application of state gaming laws to sports-related event contracts traded on federally regulated contract markets.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Lisa S. Blatt
Williams & Connolly LLP

For respondent
Adam Dmitri Hosmer-Henner
McDonald Carano LLP

Case

Subject area
Federalism (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Proceedings

  1. Oct 09 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including November 13, 2026, for all respondents.
  2. Oct 08 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from October 14, 2026 to November 13, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  3. Sep 10 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 14, 2026)