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Raymond Campbell v. Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 26-50282 · judgment July 2, 2026


0%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
At the Nov 6 conference: granted 0% · GVR 0.11% · relisted 2.5% · denied 97%
Granted ever, conference-stage estimate: 0.06%

Well below the 4.1% base rate: the model weights this down for a self-represented petitioner.

Question presented

In A.A.R.P. v. Trump, 145 S. Ct. 1364 (2025) (per curiam), this Court vacated a judgment of the Fifth Circuit dismissing, for lack of jurisdiction, an appeal from a district court’s constructive refusal of emergency injunctive relief, reaffirming that appealability under 28 U.S.C. § 1292(a)(1) turns on an order’s practical effect. See Carson v. American Brands, Inc., 450 U.S. 79 (1981). Fourteen months later, a Fifth Circuit panel dismissed, for lack of jurisdiction and in a single unexplained paragraph, Petitioner’s appeal from a district court order declaring that Petitioner “has not demonstrated a likelihood of success on the merits” and that the court “would therefore deny any motion for a temporary restraining order that is filed,” while Petitioner suffered ongoing, irreparable constitutional and economic injury. The question presented is: Whether a court of appeals may dismiss, for lack of appellate jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. § 1292(a)(1), an appeal from a district court order whose practical effect is to refuse preliminary injunctive relief indefinitely, without applying the practical-effect standard of Carson and A.A.R.P.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Raymond Campbell

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Subject area
Judicial Power (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Oct 14 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 11/6/2026.
  2. Oct 08 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Rubio, Sec. of State, et al. to respond filed.
  3. Sep 08 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 13, 2026)