Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →
Santos Arnulfo Turcios-Berrios v. Todd Blanche, Attorney General
Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 25-60375 · judgment April 7, 2026
8%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 5%–11%
Conference-stage estimate: 2%
GVR risk 0%
About 1.8× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Fifth Circuit decision below, and a petition filed soon after the judgment below.
Counsel of record
For petitioner
Raed Gonzalez
Gonzalez Olivieri, LLC
For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General
Case
Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference
Proceedings
- Aug 12 2026DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
- Aug 05 2026Waiver of right of respondent Blanche, Acting Attorney General, Todd to respond filed.
- Jul 06 2026Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 7, 2026)
- Jul 06 2026Pursuant to Rule 34.6 and Paragraph 9 of the Guidelines for the Submission of Documents to the Supreme Court's Electronic Filing System, filings in this case should be submitted in paper form only, and should not be submitted through the Court's electronic filing system.