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Mary Jo Flaherty, Interim Director, New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement, et al. v. KalshiEX, LLC

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, No. 25-1922 · judgment April 6, 2026


15%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 8%–27%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 3.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a state or local-government petitioner, a Third Circuit decision below, and a circuit split argued in the petition, and down for a business respondent.

Question presented

Whether the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act preempted States from regulating sports bets that occur within their jurisdictions if those bets are offered on markets registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Sundeep Subramanian Iyer
Office of the New Jersey Attorney General

For respondent
Neal Kumar Katyal
Milbank LLP

Case

Subject area
Federalism (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Amicus briefs
11 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1465

Proceedings

  1. Oct 08 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Former Senator Christopher J. Dodd filed.
  2. Oct 08 2026
    Brief amici curiae of 145 Indian Tribes, et al. filed.
  3. Oct 08 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of National Football League filed.
  4. Oct 08 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Former CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler filed.
  5. Oct 08 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of The Casino Association of New Jersey filed.
  6. Oct 08 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of American Gaming Association filed.
  7. Oct 07 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Ohio, et al. filed.
  8. Oct 07 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Stop Predatory Gambling, et al. filed.
  9. Oct 06 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Cabazon Band of Cahuilla Indians filed.
  10. Oct 02 2026
    Brief amici curiae of The International Association of Gaming Regulators, et al. filed.
  11. Sep 22 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including November 9, 2026.
  12. Sep 22 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States filed.
  13. Sep 18 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from October 8, 2026 to November 9, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  14. Sep 02 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 8, 2026)
  15. Jul 24 2026
    Application (25A1465) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until September 3, 2026.
  16. Jul 22 2026
    Application (25A1465) to extend further the time from August 4, 2026 to September 3, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.
  17. Jul 01 2026
    Application (25A1465) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until August 4, 2026.
  18. Jun 26 2026
    Application (25A1465) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 5, 2026 to September 3, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.