Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →

Kathleen Ashton, et al. v. The Taliban, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 23-444 · judgment August 26, 2025


18%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 10%–28%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 4.2× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a circuit split argued in the petition, a petition citing more than ten dissents, and a Second Circuit decision below.

Question presented

The panel below held that the Executive Branch’s recognition of a “notional state” of Afghanistan is dispositive of whether the Taliban and its instrumentalities qualify as a “foreign state” entitled to immunity under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (“FSIA”).1 The question presented is: Whether, in light of the Court’s intervening decision in Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Corporación CIMEX, S.A. (Cuba), 146 S. Ct. 1909 (2026), which confirms that a court—not the Executive Branch—must resolve through ordinary statutory construction whether an entity is a “foreign state” entitled to sovereign immunity, the judgment below should be vacated and remanded so that the Second Circuit must reconsider, under the correct framework, whether the Taliban and its instrumentalities are entitled to immunity under the FSIA. 1 The panel separately held that an entity’s status as an “agency or instrumentality” of a terrorist party under § 201(a) of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (“TRIA”) must be assessed as of the date the relevant assets were blocked. As to that holding, Petitioners join in the petition for a writ of certiorari filed by the Havlish petitioners arising from the same judgment. See infra p. 3. As set forth in that petition, the panel’s TRIA holding was in error. This separate petition is filed in support of, and to accompany, that petition, not to duplicate it.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Samuel Issacharoff

For respondent
—

Case

Subject area
Economic Activity (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Amicus briefs
1 cert-stage

Related
Vide, 26-292, 26-294

Proceedings

  1. Oct 05 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Naseer A. Faiq, Chargé d’Affaires of the Permanent Mission of Afghanistan to the United Nations filed. VIDED.
  2. Aug 31 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 5, 2026)
  3. Jun 18 2026
    Application (25A1393) granted by Justice Sotomayor extending the time to file until August 31, 2026.
  4. Jun 09 2026
    Application (25A1393) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 2, 2026 to August 31, 2026, submitted to Justice Sotomayor.