Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →
Juan Carlos Alvarez v. Eric Guerrero, Director, Texas Department of Criminal Justice, Correctional Institutions Division
Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 18-70001 · judgment December 23, 2025
15%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 11%–21%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
About 3.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Fifth Circuit decision below, and a circuit split argued in the petition, and down for a state or local-government respondent.
Question presented
Whether a defendant is denied the Sixth Amendment right to counsel under the established authority of this Court when the defendant’s lawyer sleeps through a critical stage at trial.
Counsel of record
For petitioner
Seth P. Waxman
Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP
For respondent
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Proceedings
- Aug 28 2026Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 2, 2026)
- Aug 11 2026Application (26A78) denied by Justice Alito.
- Aug 05 2026Application (26A78) to extend further the time from August 28, 2026 to September 27, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.
- Jul 16 2026Application (26A78) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until August 28, 2026.
- Jul 13 2026Application (26A78) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 29, 2026 to August 28, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.