Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →

John Miguel Swan v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit, No. 25-6032 · judgment April 8, 2026


10%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 6%–16%
Conference-stage estimate: 3%
Rule 10: dissent below
GVR risk 0%

About 2.4× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition), and a petition filed soon after the judgment below.

Question presented

18 U.S.C. §922(g)(1) prohibits a person “who has been convicted in any court, of a crime punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year,” from possessing a firearm or ammunition. Petitioner was convicted for violating this prohibition; but all his past convictions satisfying the criterion of being “punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year” were for nonviolent crimes. Indeed his only conviction in the decade proceeding the charged events was for a misdemeanor traffic offense. The questions presented are:

  1. Whether 18 U.S.C. §922(g)(1) is consistent with the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution in all cases, or rather is susceptible to as-applied challenges under the Second Amendment; and

  2. Whether the Second Amendment prohibits the conviction of, and judgment against, petitioner for violating 18 U.S.C. §922(g)(1) given the nonviolent character of his prior predicate convictions.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Keith Bradley
Squire Patton Boggs (U.S.) LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
1 cert-stage

Proceedings

  1. Aug 07 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Office of the Federal Public Defender for the Northern District of Oklahoma filed. (Distributed)
  2. Jul 29 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  3. Jul 24 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent United States to respond filed.
  4. Jul 02 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 7, 2026)