Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →

Jeffrey M. Johnson, Sr. v. Bob Jacobson, Commissioner, Minnesota Department of Public Safety

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, No. 25-3036 · judgment May 26, 2026


6%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 3%–10%
Conference-stage estimate: 1%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
GVR risk 0%

Modestly above the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a circuit split argued in the petition, an Eighth Circuit decision below, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition), and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Questions presented

  1. Whether Americans must obtain a firearm license from each state to exercise their Second Amendment rights across the Nation.

  2. Whether state firearm license reciprocity statutes that do not recognize firearm licenses issued by all other states are valid under N.Y. State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n v. Bruen, 597 U.S. 1 (2022).

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Ryan Ashley Morrison
Liberty Justice Center

For respondent
Michael Patrick Goodwin
Office of the Minnesota Attorney General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Sep 02 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  2. Aug 31 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Bob Jacobson to respond filed.
  3. Aug 24 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 28, 2026)