Supreme Court Report

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Neil Paul Noble v. Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 25-50809 · judgment May 5, 2026


0%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
At the Nov 6 conference: granted 0% · GVR 0.15% · relisted 11% · denied 89%
Granted ever, conference-stage estimate: 0.04%

Well below the 4.1% base rate: the model weights this down for a self-represented petitioner.

Questions presented

  1. What due process rights are Texas inmates en­ titled to during review for release to mandatory super­ vision under the Fourteenth Amendment?

  2. Did the Texas Board of pardons and Paroles vi­ olate Noble’s Amendment due process rights when they determined that Noble’s 2021 stalking conviction constituted a crime of violence and/or had a vulnera­ ble victim?

  3. Did the Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles vi­ olate Noble’s Fourteenth Amendment due process rights by considering Noble’s 2023 probation revoca­ tion when determining whether to release Noble to Mandatory Supervision?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Neil Paul Noble

For respondent
—

Case

Subject area
Due Process (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Oct 14 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 11/6/2026.
  2. Jul 30 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 28, 2026)