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Fred Rahdar, et al. v. City of Friendswood, Texas, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 25-40302 · judgment March 18, 2026


7%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 5%–10%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 1.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a Fifth Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition), and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Question presented

After the Friendswood officials tried to shut down his lawfully opened restaurant during the COVID-19 pandemic, Petitioner Fred Rahdar publicly criticized the chief of police with a billboard labeling him as a bully and created a website and public petition calling for his removal. In response, Defendants designed and executed a multi-year retaliation campaign against Petitioners, which included harassment, surveillance, multiple arrests, complaints to the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission, daily bar checks for his restaurant, highly irregular arrest procedures, and a fifth arrest for a nonviolent misdemeanor based on a statute that has never before (or since) been used to charge someone for the same or similar conduct. The question presented is: 1. Whether the opinion in Gonzalez v. Trevino, 144 S. Ct. 1663 (2024), authorizes the use of any objective evidence to defeat probable cause.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Jared Ryker Woodfill
Woodfill Law Firm, PC

For respondent

Case

Conference history

Proceedings

  1. Jul 13 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 24, 2026)