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Broadcast Music, Inc. v. North American Concert Promoters Association

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 23-935, 23-1004 · judgment February 24, 2026


14%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 10%–20%
Conference-stage estimate: 2%
Rule 10: circuit split argued
GVR risk 0%

About 3.4× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Second Circuit decision below, and a circuit split argued in the petition.

Question presented

Fair-market valuations turn on nuanced and recordbound factual determinations. This case involves a quintessential example: the rate paid to songwriters, composers, and publishers for public performances of their music at live concerts. Until now, the circuits have uniformly applied deferential, clear-error review to district courts’ fair-market valuations. In the decision below, however, the Second Circuit parted from its sister circuits and reviewed a fair-market-value determination and the individual components of that determination under an improperly stringent de novo standard. As this Court made clear in U.S. Bank National Association ex rel. CWCapital Asset Management LLC v. Village at Lakeridge, LLC, 583 U.S. 387 (2018), that approach to reviewing predominantly factual questions is erroneous. Moreover, it splits with the D.C., First, Third, Fourth, Sixth, Seventh, Eighth, Ninth, and Tenth Circuits, all of which have appropriately applied deferential standards of review to comparable fair-market-value determinations in various contexts. The question presented is: Whether a district court’s fair-market-value determination and its component parts, such as the selection of benchmark agreements, should be reviewed de novo or for clear error.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Lisa S. Blatt
Williams & Connolly LLP

For respondent
Andrew Michael Gass
Latham & Watkins LLP

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Linked docket
25A1437

Proceedings

  1. Sep 02 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  2. Aug 26 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent North American Concert Promoters Association to respond filed.
  3. Aug 20 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 23, 2026)
  4. Jun 25 2026
    Application (25A1437) granted by Justice Sotomayor extending the time to file until August 20, 2026.
  5. Jun 19 2026
    Application (25A1437) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 5, 2026 to August 20, 2026, submitted to Justice Sotomayor.