Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →

Broadcast Music, Inc. v. North American Concert Promoters Association

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 23-935, 23-1004 · judgment February 24, 2026


16%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 11%–22%
Rule 10: circuit split argued
Conference-stage estimate: 8%

About 3.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a Second Circuit decision below.

Question presented

Fair-market valuations turn on nuanced and recordbound factual determinations. This case involves a quintessential example: the rate paid to songwriters, composers, and publishers for public performances of their music at live concerts. Until now, the circuits have uniformly applied deferential, clear-error review to district courts’ fair-market valuations. In the decision below, however, the Second Circuit parted from its sister circuits and reviewed a fair-market-value determination and the individual components of that determination under an improperly stringent de novo standard. As this Court made clear in U.S. Bank National Association ex rel. CWCapital Asset Management LLC v. Village at Lakeridge, LLC, 583 U.S. 387 (2018), that approach to reviewing predominantly factual questions is erroneous. Moreover, it splits with the D.C., First, Third, Fourth, Sixth, Seventh, Eighth, Ninth, and Tenth Circuits, all of which have appropriately applied deferential standards of review to comparable fair-market-value determinations in various contexts. The question presented is: Whether a district court’s fair-market-value determination and its component parts, such as the selection of benchmark agreements, should be reviewed de novo or for clear error.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Lisa S. Blatt
Williams & Connolly LLP

For respondent
Andrew Michael Gass
Latham & Watkins LLP

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
3 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1437

Proceedings

  1. Oct 13 2026
    Brief amici curiae of National Music Publishers’ Association, et al. filed.
  2. Oct 13 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Songwriters of North America filed.
  3. Sep 16 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including November 2, 2026.
  4. Sep 15 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from October 13, 2026 to November 2, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  5. Sep 10 2026
    Response Requested. (Due October 13, 2026)
  6. Sep 09 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of American Society of Composers, Authors and Publishers filed.
  7. Sep 02 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  8. Aug 26 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent North American Concert Promoters Association to respond filed.
  9. Aug 20 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 23, 2026)
  10. Jun 25 2026
    Application (25A1437) granted by Justice Sotomayor extending the time to file until August 20, 2026.
  11. Jun 19 2026
    Application (25A1437) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 5, 2026 to August 20, 2026, submitted to Justice Sotomayor.