Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →
Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, et al. v. Neeta Thakur, Individually and on Behalf of All Others Similarly Situated, et al.
Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 25-4249 · judgment May 26, 2026
56%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 46%–65%
Rule 10: dissent below
About 13.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a federal-government petitioner, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a Ninth Circuit decision below.
Question presented
Whether the First Amendment prohibits the government from considering the viewpoints furthered by academic research projects when deciding whether to grant or terminate funding for those projects through competitive grant programs.
Counsel of record
For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General
For respondent
Erwin Chemerinsky
Case
Conference history
—
Proceedings
- Aug 25 2026Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including October 19, 2026.
- Aug 24 2026Motion to extend the time to file a response from September 18, 2026 to October 19, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
- Aug 18 2026Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 18, 2026)