Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →
Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, Incorporated, et al. v. National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association, et al.
Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 23-10520 · judgment June 11, 2026
24%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 17%–31%
Rule 10: circuit split argued
About 5.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a petition filed soon after the judgment below, and a Fifth Circuit decision below.
Question presented
Whether the enforcement provisions of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act are facially unconstitutional under the private-nondelegation doctrine.
Counsel of record
For petitioner
Pratik Arvind Shah
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, LLP
For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General
Proceedings
- Aug 10 2026Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 16, 2026)