Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →
Warden, Moshannon Valley Correctional Center, et al. v. Adolph Michelin, et al.
Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, No. 24-2990, 24-3198 · judgment February 2, 2026
33%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 22%–47%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
About 8× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Third Circuit decision below, and a state or local-government petitioner.
Question presented
Whether the Equal Access to Justice Act’s limited waiver of the United States’ sovereign immunity in “any civil action (other than cases sounding in tort),” 28 U.S.C. 2412(d)(1)(A), unambiguously and unequivocally encompasses petitions for writs of habeas corpus challenging immigration detention.
Counsel of record
For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General
For respondent
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Proceedings
- Jul 30 2026Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 31, 2026)
- Jun 22 2026Application (25A1300) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until July 30, 2026.
- Jun 17 2026Application (25A1300) to extend further the time from June 30, 2026 to July 30, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.
- May 26 2026Application (25A1300) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until June 30, 2026.
- May 21 2026Application (25A1300) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from May 31, 2026 to July 1, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.