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Wes Allen, Alabama Secretary of State, et al., Appellants v. Evan Milligan, et al.

Paid petition · United States District Court for the Northern District of Alabama, No. 2:21-cv-01530-AMM · judgment May 26, 2026


34%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 17%–56%
At the Oct 16 conference: granted 2.3% · GVR 30% · relisted 67% · denied 0%
Granted ever, conference-stage estimate: 14%

About 8.2× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a direct appeal from a three-judge district court (mandatory jurisdiction), a petition filed soon after the judgment below, and a state or local-government petitioner.

Questions presented

For fifty years, the Alabama Legislature kept the State’s two coastal counties in one district, allowing one voice to represent the Gulf Coast in Congress. The 2021 Plan, which made minimal changes to its predecessor, was preliminarily enjoined under §2 of the Voting Rights Act for prioritizing the Gulf Coast over another community of interest, the Black Belt (named for its rich soil). Rather than litigate the lawfulness of the 2021 Plan, the State adopted the 2023 Plan, which kept both the Gulf Coast and Black Belt intact to the fullest extent possible. It also furthered the Legislature’s goal of protecting incumbents. Still, the district court enjoined use of the 2023 Plan, deemed the State’s political goals “illegitimate,” and found that the State had intentionally discriminated by failing to draw another majority-minority district. The questions presented are:

  1. Did the district court err by not requiring Plaintiffs to offer an alternative map that performed just as well as the State’s map with respect to the State’s districting criteria?

  2. Did the district court err by finding racial-bloc voting without accounting for politics?

  3. Did the district court err by finding that the totality of circumstances suggests an objective likelihood of discrimination?

  4. Did the State violate the Fourteenth Amendment by declining to draw a race-based plan?

Counsel of record

For appellant
Alexander Barrett Bowdre
Office of Alabama Attorney General

For appellee
Deuel Ross
NAACP Legal Defense & Educational Fund, Inc.

Case

Subject area
Civil Rights (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Sep 30 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 10/16/2026.
  2. Sep 29 2026
    Opposition to motion to dismiss or affirm of appellants Wes Allen, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  3. Sep 28 2026
    Waiver of the 14-day waiting period for the distribution of the jurisdictional statement pursuant to Rule 18.7 filed by appellants.
  4. Sep 18 2026
    Motion to dismiss or affirm filed by appellees Evan Milligan, et al.
  5. Aug 12 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including September 18, 2026.
  6. Aug 05 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from August 24, 2026 to September 18, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  7. Jul 22 2026
    Statement as to jurisdiction filed. (Response due August 24, 2026)