Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →

Noah A. Herzon, et al. v. Robert Arias

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, No. 23-1618 · judgment August 15, 2025


23%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 15%–34%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 5.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a First Circuit decision below, and a circuit split argued in the petition.

Question presented

Whether Bivens v. Six Unknown Named Agents of Federal Bureau of Narcotics, 403 U.S. 388 (1971), in which this Court created a private right of action to seek damages for a Fourth Amendment claim arising out of a warrantless arrest in a home, should be extended to a Fourth Amendment excessive-force claim arising out of the execution of an arrest warrant outside the home.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

For respondent
Jeremy D. Eggleton
Orr & Reno

Case

Conference history

Linked docket
25A1226

Proceedings

  1. Aug 18 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including September 23, 2026 (30-day extension).
  2. Aug 07 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from August 24, 2026 to September 23, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  3. Jul 23 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 24, 2026)
  4. May 08 2026
    Application (25A1226) granted by Justice Jackson extending the time to file until July 24, 2026.
  5. May 06 2026
    Application (25A1226) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from May 25, 2026 to July 24, 2026, submitted to Justice Jackson.