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Republican National Committee, et al. v. Bette Eakin, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, No. 25-1644 · judgment August 26, 2025


35%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 22%–51%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
Conference-stage estimate: 23%

About 8.5× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Third Circuit decision below, and a circuit split argued in the petition.

Questions presented

In 2019, the Pennsylvania General Assembly struck a historic bipartisan compromise that enacted the convenience of universal mail voting. As part of that compromise, the General Assembly extended to mail voting the same election integrity safeguards that have governed absentee voting for decades. One of those safeguards requires mail voters to fill out, sign, and date a declaration on the outer ballot-return envelope—and has already detected an instance of voter fraud. Since 2019, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court and the Third Circuit have rejected an array of challenges to the date-requirement aspect of this safeguard. In this latest case, a Third Circuit panel agreed that the date requirement imposes at most a minimal burden and has helped detect voter fraud. The panel nonetheless declared it unconstitutional under the AndersonBurdick balancing framework. The panel acknowledged that its decision deepens multiple circuit splits. The decision also departs from several precedents of this Court. A divided Third Circuit denied rehearing en banc on a 7–6 vote. The questions presented are:

  1. Whether a non-discriminatory rule imposing the usual burdens of voting is constitutional;

  2. Whether a mail-voting rule is subject only to rational-basis review when the State makes inperson voting available; and

  3. Where Anderson-Burdick applies, whether a minimally burdensome voting rule is subject only to rational-basis review, and whether a rule’s burden is measured by the cost of compliance or the consequence of noncompliance.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
John Matthew Gore
Jones Day

For respondent
Jeffrey David Bukowski
Smith Bukowski, LLC

Case

Subject area
Civil Rights (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 2 conferences

Amicus briefs
4 cert-stage

Related
Vide, 25-967

Linked docket
25A691

Order
Order list, June 29, 2026

Proceedings

  1. Jun 29 2026
    Motion for leave to file amicus brief filed by Professor Michael T. Morley, et al. GRANTED.
  2. Jun 29 2026
    The Solicitor General is invited to file a brief in this case expressing the views of the United States.
  3. Jun 09 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 6/25/2026.
  4. Jun 09 2026
    Waiver of right of respondents Butler, Clarion, Potter, Susquehanna, and Tioga Boards of Election to respond filed.
  5. Jun 08 2026
    Reply of petitioners Republican National Committee, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  6. Jun 04 2026
    Waiver of the 14-day waiting period for the distribution of the petition pursuant to Rule 15.5 filed by petitioners.
  7. Jun 01 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Chester County Board of Elections to respond filed.
  8. Jun 01 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Montgomery County Board of Elections to respond filed.
  9. Jun 01 2026
    Brief of respondents Bette Eakin, et al. in opposition filed. VIDED.
  10. Jun 01 2026
    Brief of respondents Perry County Board of Elections, et al. in response to petition for writ of certiorari filed.
  11. Jun 01 2026
    Letter of respondent Delaware County Board of Elections filed.
  12. Jun 01 2026
    Brief of respondent Berks County Board of Elections in support filed.
  13. Jun 01 2026
    Brief of respondent Lehigh County Board of Elections filed. VIDED.
  14. Jun 01 2026
    Brief in Response to petition for writ of certiorari of Perry County and Franklin County Boards of Elections (York County Board of Elections) not accepted for filing. (To be resubmitted - June 11, 2026)
  15. Jun 01 2026
    Brief of respondent York County Board of Elections filed. VIDED. (Resubmitted) (Distributed)
  16. Jun 01 2026
    Brief of respondent Northampton County Board of Elections in opposition filed. VIDED. (Distributed)
  17. Jun 01 2026
    Letter of respondent Philadelphia County Board of Elections filed.
  18. May 29 2026
    Brief of respondent Luzerne County Board of Elections and Registration in opposition filed. VIDED.
  19. Apr 08 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including June 1, 2026, for all respondents.
  20. Apr 07 2026
    Motion of respondents Bette Eakin, et al. to extend the time to file a response from May 1, 2026 to June 1, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  21. Apr 01 2026
    Response Requested. (Due May 1, 2026)
  22. Mar 25 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 4/17/2026.
  23. Mar 17 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Lehigh County Board of Elections to respond filed.
  24. Mar 16 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Luzerne County Board of Elections and Registration to respond filed.
  25. Mar 16 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Philadelphia Board of Elections to respond filed.
  26. Mar 16 2026
    Waiver of right of respondents Bette Eakin, DSCC, DCCC, and AFT Pennsylvania to respond filed.
  27. Mar 16 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Kim Ward, President Pro Tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate, et al. filed.
  28. Mar 16 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Center for Election Confidence filed.
  29. Mar 16 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of America First Legal Foundation filed. VIDED.
  30. Mar 16 2026
    Motion for leave to file amici brief filed by Professor Michael T. Morley, et al. VIDED.
  31. Mar 13 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Lackawanna County Board of Elections to respond filed.
  32. Mar 13 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Missouri, et al. filed.
  33. Mar 12 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Westmoreland County Board of Elections to respond filed.
  34. Mar 11 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Delaware County Board of Elections to respond filed.
  35. Mar 11 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Crawford County Board of Elections to respond filed.
  36. Mar 10 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Perry County, Pennsylvania to respond filed.
  37. Mar 08 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Commonwealth of Pennsylvania to respond filed.
  38. Mar 07 2026
    Waiver of right of respondents Lancaster County Board of Elections, et al. to respond filed.
  39. Mar 05 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Northampton County Board of Elections to respond filed.
  40. Mar 03 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Berks County Board of Elections to respond filed.
  41. Feb 11 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due March 16, 2026)
  42. Dec 12 2025
    Application (25A691) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until February 11, 2026.
  43. Dec 10 2025
    Application (25A691) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from January 12, 2026 to February 11, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.