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Erie Indemnity Company v. Troy Stephenson, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, No. 24-1443 · judgment October 14, 2025


Certiorari denied · March 23, 2026
Pre-decision estimate: 11% cert probability (95% interval 7%–17%)

Before the decision, about 2.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Third Circuit decision below, and a petition filed soon after the judgment below.

Question presented

This Court has emphasized that a previous court’s judgment bars any claims between the parties or their privies that “involve a common nucleus of operative facts.” Lucky Brand Dungarees, Inc. v. Marcel Fashions Grp., Inc., 590 U.S. 405, 412 (2020) (quotation marks omitted). Respondents filed an action against Petitioner that pleaded the same claim, based on the same legal theory and the same unchanged operative facts, as those pleaded in earlier suits that resulted in multiple adverse final judgments. In an effort to avoid the preclusive effect of those prior judgments, Respondents purported to limit their challenge to Petitioner’s identical ongoing, continuing conduct in 2019 and 2020—years that postdated the earlier suits. Respondents did not allege any material change in fact. The district court that had adjudicated those prior actions held that Respondents’ claims here were precluded. But, in conflict with this Court’s precedents and multiple other circuits’ decisions, the Third Circuit held that Respondents had escaped preclusion simply by alleging that the same previously adjudicated conduct continued into additional years. The question presented is: When a plaintiff challenges the same ongoing, continuing conduct that was fully adjudicated in an earlier suit, does the mere passage of time foreclose claim and issue preclusion?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Michael Hugh McGinley
Dechert LLP

For respondent
Nicolas Anthony Sansone
Public Citizen Litigation Group

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Mar 23 2026
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Mar 04 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 3/20/2026.
  3. Mar 02 2026
    Reply of petitioner Erie Indemnity Company filed. (Distributed)
  4. Feb 13 2026
    Brief of respondents Troy Stephenson, et al. in opposition filed.
  5. Jan 12 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due February 13, 2026)