Supreme Court Report

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Masahide Kanayama v. Scott Kowal, Chief Pretrial Services Officer, Southern District of New York, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 24-1340 · judgment November 18, 2025


Certiorari denied · February 23, 2026
Pre-decision estimate: 7% cert probability (95% interval 4%–11%)

Before the decision, about 1.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for a petition filed soon after the judgment below, a Second Circuit decision below, and counsel who has filed here before, and down for a business respondent.

Question presented

Whether in certifying Dr. Masahide Kanayama’s extradition to Japan, the District Court for the Southern District of New York improperly relied on a hypothetical damage calculation to satisfy the element of dual criminality.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Jeffrey Harris Lichtman
Law Offices of Jeffrey Lichtman

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Feb 23 2026
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Jan 21 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 2/20/2026.
  3. Jan 12 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Kowal, Scott to respond filed.
  4. Dec 09 2025
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due January 20, 2026)