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CoStar Group, Inc., et al. v. Commercial Real Estate Exchange, Inc.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 23-55662 · judgment June 23, 2025


Certiorari denied · March 23, 2026
Pre-decision estimate: 5% cert probability (95% interval 4%–8%)

Before the decision, modestly above the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Ninth Circuit decision below, and a business petitioner, and down for a business respondent.

Questions presented

In Bell Atlantic Corp. v. Twombly, this Court recognized the risk of allowing antitrust claims to proceed past the pleading stage in the absence of a “plausible entitlement to relief.” 550 U.S. 544, 559 (2007). That risk is particularly acute when a court relies on novel and vague theories of antitrust law. The Ninth Circuit’s decision raises precisely that concern: the court reversed the grant of a motion to dismiss based on two theories that provide no plausible entitlement to relief under the Sherman Act or this Court’s case law—and that have given rise to conflict and confusion among the courts of appeals. The questions presented are:

  1. Whether a “de facto” exclusive dealing claim is cognizable under the Sherman Act in the absence of exclusive contractual terms, programs, or policies.

  2. Whether a refusal-to-deal claim prohibited by Verizon Communications Inc. v. Law Offices of Curtis V. Trinko, LLP, 540 U.S. 398 (2004), is cognizable if the plaintiff calls it something else.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Melissa Arbus Sherry
Latham & Watkins LLP

For respondent
Ellyde Roko Thompson
Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan, LLP

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 2 conferences

Amicus briefs
2 cert-stage

Proceedings

  1. Mar 23 2026
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Mar 04 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 3/20/2026.
  3. Mar 03 2026
    Reply of petitioners CoStar Group, Inc.; et al. filed. (Distributed)
  4. Feb 13 2026
    Brief of respondent Commercial Real Estate Exchange, Inc. in opposition filed.
  5. Jan 14 2026
    Response Requested. (Due February 13, 2026)
  6. Jan 07 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Former Antitrust Officials, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  7. Jan 07 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Chamber of Progress filed. (Distributed)
  8. Dec 30 2025
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 1/16/2026.
  9. Dec 26 2025
    Waiver of right of respondent Commercial Real Estate Exch., Inc. to respond filed.
  10. Dec 04 2025
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due January 7, 2026)