Supreme Court Report

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Independent Specialty Insurance Company v. Apex Hospitality Group, L.L.C.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 25-30107 · judgment February 4, 2026


1%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
Rule 10: circuit split argued
Conference-stage estimate: 9%

Well below the 4.1% base rate: the model weights this down for a petition under 3,000 words.

Question presented

The question presented is whether federal common law or state law determines whether a nonsignatory can use equitable estoppel principles to enforce arbitration agreements governed by the Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Raymond Chandler Lewis
Deutsch Kerrigan LLP

For respondent
Michael Lane
Lane Law Group L.L.C.

Case

Subject area
Economic Activity (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Aug 17 2026
    Response Requested. (Due September 16, 2026)
  2. Aug 12 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  3. Jun 02 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due July 29, 2026)