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Walid bin ‘Atash v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 25-1009 · judgment July 11, 2025


6%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 4%–9%

Modestly above the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before and a D.C. Circuit decision below.

Question presented

Rule 705(d)(4)(B) of the Rules for Military Commissions provides that the government “may withdraw from a pretrial agreement at any time before the accused begins performance of promises contained in the agreement.” The question presented is: Whether, consistent with the standard for mandamus relief, it is clear and indisputable that an accused has not begun performance under Rule 705(d)(4)(B) when the accused and the government have signed a pretrial agreement, the accused has entered into a detailed stipulation of fact with the prosecution admitting to the basis behind the charges, and the accused has taken additional actions that the government itself treated as required by the agreement.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Xiao Wang
University of Virginia School of Law

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history

Linked docket
25A1063

Proceedings

  1. Aug 26 2026
    Brief of respondent United States in opposition filed.
  2. Jul 24 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is further extended to and including August 26, 2026.
  3. Jul 22 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from July 31, 2026 to August 26, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  4. Jun 30 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including July 31, 2026.
  5. Jun 26 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from July 1, 2026 to July 31, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  6. May 21 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due July 1, 2026)
  7. Mar 31 2026
    Application (25A1063) granted by The Chief Justice extending the time to file until May 21, 2026.
  8. Mar 24 2026
    Application (25A1063) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from April 6, 2026 to May 21, 2026, submitted to The Chief Justice.