Supreme Court Report

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Katherine Novotny, et al. v. Wes Moore, Governor of Maryland, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, No. 24-1799, 24-1827, 24-1834, 24-1836 · judgment January 20, 2026


14%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 8%–23%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
At the Oct 16 conference: granted 0.69% · GVR 2.5% · relisted 40% · denied 56%
Granted ever, conference-stage estimate: 10%

About 3.4× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a petition citing more than ten dissents, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Question presented

Counsel for Petitioners Mark W. Pennak Susannah Warner Kipke LAW OFFICES OF MARK and Maryland State Ri- W. PENNAK fle and Pistol Associa- 7416 Ridgewood Ave. tion, Inc. Chevy Chase, MD 20815 Counsel for Petitioners Katherine Novotny, Sue Burke, Esther Rossberg, Maryland Shall Issue, Inc., Second Amendment Foundation, and Firearms Policy Coalition

Counsel of record

For petitioner
David H. Thompson
Cooper & Kirk, PLLC

For respondent
Ryan Robert Dietrich
Office of the Attorney General of Maryland

Case

Subject area
Criminal Procedure (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 3 conferences

Amicus briefs
1 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1140

Proceedings

  1. Oct 13 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 10/16/2026.
  2. Oct 13 2026
    Rescheduled.
  3. Oct 06 2026
    Rescheduled.
  4. Oct 05 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 10/9/2026.
  5. Sep 24 2026
    Rescheduled.
  6. Sep 02 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  7. Sep 02 2026
    Reply of petitioners Katherine Novotny, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  8. Aug 17 2026
    Brief of respondents Wesley Moore, et al. in opposition filed.
  9. Jul 17 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is further extended to and including August 17, 2026.
  10. Jul 16 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from July 29, 2026 to August 17, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  11. Jun 29 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Gun Owners of America, et al. filed.
  12. Jun 17 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including July 29, 2026.
  13. Jun 16 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from June 29, 2026 to July 29, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  14. Apr 16 2026
    Application (25A1140) granted by The Chief Justice extending the time to file until May 20, 2026.
  15. Apr 15 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due June 29, 2026)
  16. Apr 10 2026
    Application (25A1140) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from April 20, 2026 to May 20, 2026, submitted to The Chief Justice.