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Rio Grande Foundation v. Maggie Toulouse Oliver, in Her Official Capacity as Secretary of State of New Mexico

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit, No. 24-2070 · judgment September 9, 2025


1%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
Conference-stage estimate: 7%
GVR risk 0%

Well below the 4.1% base rate, with no standout signals pointing toward a grant.

Questions presented

  1. First Amendment exacting scrutiny requires a “substantial relation” between a campaign-finance disclosure regime and a sufficiently important governmental interest—namely, the informational interest in identifying those who support candidates for office. The question presented is whether New Mexico’s informational interest is sufficient under exacting scrutiny to justify applying its disclosure regime to issue advocacy organizations, like Petitioner, that engage in no express advocacy or its functional equivalent.

  2. Under Buckley v. Valeo, campaign-finance disclosure requirements serve the government’s informational interest only when applied to organizations whose “major purpose” is the election of candidates, or—for issue-advocacy organizations that lack that major purpose—when those organizations make expenditures that expressly advocate the election or defeat of a candidate. The question is whether applying New Mexico’s disclosure regime to an organization that does not meet Buckley’s “major purpose” test and does not engage in express advocacy, like Petitioner, constitutes narrow tailoring under exacting scrutiny absent donor earmarking.

  3. This Court has long held that laws that burden political speech are subject to strict scrutiny, and, similarly, that content-based speech regulations are subject to strict scrutiny. The question is whether disclosure regimes applied to issue advocacy organizations, like Petitioner, that engage exclusively in political speech—without express advocacy or its functional equivalent—must satisfy strict scrutiny rather than exacting scrutiny.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Jeffrey Michael Schwab
Liberty Justice Center

For respondent
Ellen Libby Venegas
New Mexico Department of Justice

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 2 conferences

Amicus briefs
4 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1049

Proceedings

  1. Aug 12 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  2. Aug 10 2026
    Reply of petitioner Rio Grande Foundation filed. (Distributed)
  3. Jul 27 2026
    Brief of respondent Maggie Toulouse Oliver, New Mexico Secretary of State in opposition filed.
  4. Jun 18 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Advancing American Freedom, Inc., et al. filed.
  5. Jun 11 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including July 27, 2026.
  6. Jun 10 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from June 25, 2026 to July 27, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  7. Jun 03 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Americans for Prosperity Foundation, et al. filed.
  8. May 29 2026
    Brief amici curiae of National Taxpayers Union Foundation, et al. filed.
  9. May 26 2026
    Response Requested. (Due June 25, 2026)
  10. May 19 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 6/4/2026.
  11. May 18 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Randy Elf filed. (Distributed)
  12. May 15 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Maggie Toulouse Oliver, New Mexico Secretary of State to respond filed.
  13. Apr 29 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due June 3, 2026)
  14. Mar 23 2026
    Application (25A1049) granted by Justice Gorsuch extending the time to file until April 29, 2026.
  15. Mar 17 2026
    Application (25A1049) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from March 30, 2026 to May 29, 2026, submitted to Justice Gorsuch.