Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →
United States v. Charles Hembree
Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 24-60436 · judgment January 27, 2026
37%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 28%–47%
Conference-stage estimate: 7%
GVR risk 4%
About 9× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a federal-government petitioner, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a Fifth Circuit decision below.
Question presented
Whether 18 U.S.C. 922(g)(1), the federal statute that prohibits the possession of a firearm by a person who has been convicted of a crime punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year, violates the Second Amendment as applied to respondent. (I)
Counsel of record
For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General
For respondent
Michael Scott
Office of the Federal Public Defender
Case
Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference
Proceedings
- Jul 15 2026DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
- Jun 29 2026Motion for leave to proceed in forma pauperis filed by respondent Charles Hembree.
- Jun 29 2026Brief of respondent Charles Hembree in opposition filed.
- Jun 15 2026Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is further extended to and including July 10, 2026.
- Jun 12 2026Motion to extend the time to file a response from June 26, 2026 to July 10, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
- May 08 2026Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including June 26, 2026.
- May 06 2026Motion to extend the time to file a response from May 27, 2026 to June 26, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
- Apr 24 2026Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due May 27, 2026)