Supreme Court Report

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George Peterson v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 24-30043 · judgment December 9, 2025


Certiorari denied · April 20, 2026
Pre-decision estimate: 7% cert probability (95% interval 5%–11%)

Before the decision, about 1.8× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Fifth Circuit decision below, and a petition filed soon after the judgment below.

Questions presented

  1. Whether the National Firearms Act’s taxation-and-registration scheme for covered firearms can be justified as a licensing law.

  2. Whether the National Firearms Act’s taxation-and-registration scheme violates the Second Amendment with respect to firearm suppressors.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
David H. Thompson
Cooper & Kirk, PLLC

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
2 cert-stage

Proceedings

  1. Apr 20 2026
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Apr 08 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Gun Owners of America, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  3. Apr 02 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Second Amendment Foundation, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  4. Apr 01 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 4/17/2026.
  5. Mar 30 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent United States to respond filed.
  6. Mar 09 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due April 13, 2026)