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Mark Miller, et al. v. Jane Nelson, Texas Secretary of State, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 23-50537 · judgment September 10, 2024


Certiorari denied · March 24, 2025
Pre-decision estimate: 7% cert probability (95% interval 5%–10%)

Before the decision, about 1.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for a Fifth Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition), and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Questions presented

It is undisputed that a state may not condition participation in its elections on the payment of a fee. In this case, the uncontroverted evidence establishes that a minor political party or independent candidate for statewide office must spend substantial funds— hundreds of thousands of dollars or more—to comply with the requirements to appear on the general election ballot in Texas. The Questions Presented Are:

  1. Whether a statutory scheme that compels candidates and political parties to spend substantial funds to qualify for the ballot violates the First and Fourteenth Amendments?

  2. Whether a statutory scheme that compels candidates and political parties to spend substantial funds to qualify for the ballot imposes a “severe” burden under the Anderson-Burdick framework?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Oliver Barrett Hall
Center for Competitive Democracy

For respondent
Allison Marie Collins
Texas Office of the Attorney General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Linked docket
24A525

Proceedings

  1. Mar 24 2025
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Feb 26 2025
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 3/21/2025.
  3. Feb 24 2025
    Waiver of right of respondent Jane Nelson, et al. to respond filed.
  4. Feb 07 2025
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due March 13, 2025)
  5. Jan 02 2025
    Application (24A525) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until February 7, 2025.
  6. Dec 27 2024
    Application (24A525) to extend further the time from January 8, 2025 to February 7, 2025, submitted to Justice Alito.
  7. Dec 03 2024
    Application (24A525) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until January 8, 2025.
  8. Nov 22 2024
    Application (24A525) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from December 9, 2024 to January 23, 2025, submitted to Justice Alito.