Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →
Holsey Ellingburg, Jr. v. United States
Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, No. 23-3129 · judgment August 23, 2024
Decided · January 20, 2026
Pre-decision estimate: 34% cert probability (95% interval 23%–46%)
Before the decision, about 8.2× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a petition filed soon after the judgment below, and a circuit split argued in the petition.
Question presented
Whether criminal restitution under the Mandatory Victim Restitution Act (MVRA) is penal for purposes of the Ex Post Facto Clause. JOHN F. BASH, ESQUIRE, OF AUSTIN, TEXAS, IS INVITED TO BRIEF AND ARGUE THIS CASE, AS AMICUS CURIAE, IN SUPPORT OF THE JUDGMENT BELOW.
Counsel of record
For petitioner
Lisa Schiavo Blatt
Williams & Connolly LLP
For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General
Case
Conference history
Distributed for 6 conferences
Amicus briefs
8 merits
(8 respondent)
Argument & decision
Argued October 14, 2025 — Amy M. Saharia · Ashley Robertson · John F. Bash. Audio and transcript
Decided January 20, 2026. Opinion by Kavanaugh.
Proceedings
- Feb 23 2026Judgment Issued.
- Jan 20 2026Judgment REVERSED and case REMANDED. Kavanaugh, J., delivered the opinion for a unanimous Court. Thomas, J., filed a concurring opinion, in which Gorsuch, J., joined.
- Oct 14 2025Argued. For petitioner: Amy M. Saharia, Washington, D. C. For respondent in support of vacatur: Ashley Robertson, Assistant to the Solicitor General, Department of Justice, Washington, D. C. For Court-appointed amicus curiae in support of judgment below: John F. Bash, Austin, Tex.
- Oct 07 2025Sealed material received electronically from the United States District Court for the Western District of Missouri. The remainder of the record is electronic and is available on PACER.
- Sep 22 2025Motion for divided argument filed by respondent GRANTED.
- Sep 22 2025Reply of respondent United States filed. (Distributed)
- Sep 22 2025Reply of petitioner Holsey Ellingburg, Jr. filed. (Distributed)
- Sep 02 2025CIRCULATED
- Aug 29 2025Brief amicus curiae of Debra Ricketts-Holder filed. (Distributed)
- Aug 26 2025Record received from the United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit and available with the Clerk (one box).
- Aug 22 2025Brief of Court-appointed amicus curiae in support of the judgment below filed.
- Aug 18 2025Record requested from the United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit.
- Aug 13 2025Motion for divided argument filed by the Solicitor General.
- Aug 12 2025SET FOR ARGUMENT on Tuesday, October 14, 2025.
- Jun 30 2025Brief amicus curiae of Professor Beth A. Colgan filed.
- Jun 30 2025Brief amicus curiae of Constitutional Accountability Center filed.
- Jun 30 2025Brief amici curiae of Cato Institute, et al. filed.
- Jun 30 2025Brief amici curiae of Restitution Scholars filed.
- Jun 30 2025Brief amici curiae of National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers, et al. filed.
- Jun 30 2025Brief amicus curiae of Professor Jennifer Laurin filed.
- Jun 30 2025Brief amicus curiae of Professor Wayne A. Logan filed.
- Jun 23 2025Brief of petitioner Holsey Ellingburg, Jr. filed.
- Jun 23 2025Brief of respondent United States supporting vacatur filed.
- Jun 16 2025Motion to dispense with printing the joint appendix filed by petitioner GRANTED.
- Jun 04 2025Motion to dispense with printing the joint appendix filed by petitioner Holsey Ellingburg, Jr.
- May 27 2025Motion to extend the time to file brief of Court-appointed amicus curiae in support of the judgment below is granted and the time is extended to and including August 22, 2025.
- May 21 2025Motion of Court-appointed amicus curiae for an extension of time filed.
- May 15 2025John F. Bash, Esquire, of Austin, Texas, is invited to brief and argue this case, as amicus curiae, in support of the judgment below.
- May 13 2025Motion to extend the time to file the joint appendix and petitioner's brief on the merits is granted, and the time is extended to and including June 23, 2025.
- May 12 2025Letter of respondent United States notifying the Court that the government will be filing a merits brief in support of the petitioner on the question presented, filed.
- May 07 2025Motion for an extension of time to file the joint appendix and petitioner's brief on the merits filed.
- Apr 07 2025Petition GRANTED.
- Mar 31 2025DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 4/4/2025.
- Mar 24 2025DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 3/28/2025.
- Mar 17 2025DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 3/21/2025.
- Mar 03 2025DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 3/7/2025.
- Feb 12 2025DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 2/28/2025.
- Feb 11 2025Reply of petitioner Holsey Ellingburg, Jr. filed. (Distributed)
- Feb 10 2025Waiver of the 14-day waiting period for the distribution of the petition pursuant to Rule 15.5 filed by petitioner.
- Feb 07 2025Brief of respondent United States in opposition filed.
- Dec 26 2024Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is further extended to and including February 7, 2025.
- Dec 23 2024Motion to extend the time to file a response from January 8, 2025 to February 7, 2025, submitted to The Clerk.
- Dec 06 2024Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including January 8, 2025.
- Dec 04 2024Motion to extend the time to file a response from December 9, 2024 to January 8, 2025, submitted to The Clerk.
- Nov 07 2024Response Requested. (Due December 9, 2024)
- Nov 06 2024DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 11/22/2024.
- Nov 04 2024Waiver of right of respondent United States to respond filed.
- Oct 25 2024Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due November 29, 2024)