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No on E, San Franciscans Opposing the Affordable Housing Production Act, et al. v. David Chiu, in His Official Capacity as San Francisco City Attorney, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 22-15824 · judgment October 26, 2023


Certiorari denied · October 7, 2024
Pre-decision estimate: 12% cert probability (95% interval 8%–16%)

Before the decision, about 2.8× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for counsel with five or more prior petitions here, a Ninth Circuit decision below, and a circuit split argued in the petition.

Question presented

San Francisco election ads must name up to nine separate donors: their speakers’ top three donors, and for each of those donors that is a committee, that donor’s top two donors, along with the dollar amount given by each primary and secondary donor. Donors’ donors must be named regardless of whether they are even aware of the campaign, let alone support it. The city requires that the “disclaimer” including this information appear in writing, on the screen or as part of any print advertising, at certain minimum sizes, and that it be spoken, except for the dollar amounts, at the start of radio and video ads. See S.F. Campaign & Governmental Conduct Code § 1.161(a); S.F. Ethics Comm’n Reg. § 1.161-3. Petitioners cannot run ads disclosing secondary donors, fearing that doing so would confuse and mislead the voters about the identities of the campaign’s supporters. The secondary donor speech mandate also barred petitioners’ 15- and 30-second ads, because the required spoken “disclaimers” ran 32 to 33 seconds. Likewise, the required written “disclaimers” entirely wiped out petitioners’ smaller 2x4 inch newspaper ads. Although San Francisco has since exempted ads of up to 30 seconds from the requirement to speak about secondary donors, and no longer requires that print ads of 25 or fewer square inches name secondary donors, the disclaimer would still consume and displace 51% of the screen for up to 33% of petitioners’ video ads’ duration, 35% of petitioners’ 5x10 inch print ads, 23% of petitioners’ 8.5x11 inch mailers, and, when spoken, the first 53-55% of petitioners’ 60-second video ads. The questions presented are: 1. Whether requiring political advertisers to name their donors’ donors within their

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Alan Gura
Institute for Free Speech

For respondent
Tara Michelle Steeley
Office of the City Attorney

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 2 conferences

Amicus briefs
8 cert-stage

Linked docket
23A511

Proceedings

  1. Oct 07 2024
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Sep 25 2024
    Supplemental brief of petitioners No on E, San Franciscans Opposing the Affordable Housing Production Act, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  3. Sep 23 2024
    Supplemental brief of respondents David Chiu, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  4. Jun 26 2024
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/30/2024.
  5. Jun 24 2024
    Reply of petitioners No on E, San Franciscans Opposing the Affordable Housing Production Act, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  6. Jun 10 2024
    Brief of respondents David Chiu, et al. in opposition filed.
  7. Apr 12 2024
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including June 10, 2024.
  8. Apr 11 2024
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from May 9, 2024 to June 10, 2024, submitted to The Clerk.
  9. Apr 09 2024
    Response Requested. (Due May 9, 2024)
  10. Apr 03 2024
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 4/19/2024.
  11. Mar 28 2024
    Brief amicus curiae of Cato Institute filed.
  12. Mar 28 2024
    Brief amicus curiae of Center for Constitutional Jurisprudence filed.
  13. Mar 28 2024
    Brief amicus curiae of The Buckeye Institute filed.
  14. Mar 28 2024
    Brief amici curiae of Americans for Prosperity Foundation, et al. filed.
  15. Mar 28 2024
    Brief amici curiae of Advancing American Freedom, et al. filed.
  16. Mar 27 2024
    Brief amicus curiae of Liberty Justice Center filed.
  17. Mar 26 2024
    Waiver of right of respondent David Chiu, et al. to respond filed.
  18. Mar 26 2024
    Brief amicus curiae of Citizen Action Defense Fund filed.
  19. Mar 25 2024
    Brief amici curiae of Dr. David Primo and Dr. Jeffrey Milyo filed.
  20. Feb 23 2024
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due March 28, 2024)
  21. Dec 06 2023
    Application (23A511) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until February 23, 2024.
  22. Dec 01 2023
    Application (23A511) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from January 24, 2024 to February 23, 2024, submitted to Justice Kagan.