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Marc Thielman, et al. v. Lavonne Griffin-Valade, Oregon Secretary of State, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 23-35452 · judgment December 12, 2023


Certiorari denied · May 20, 2024
Pre-decision estimate: 7% cert probability (95% interval 5%–10%)

Before the decision, about 1.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for a Ninth Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition), and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Question presented

Confidence in elections directly corresponds to individual freedom. When the public is confident that election processes generate fair outcomes, citizens are free because they govern themselves. On the other hand, when elections are widely understood as unfair (such as in Iran or Venezuela), citizens do not govern themselves and they are not free, despite the public show of elections. The degree of public confidence in election processes is the yardstick for measuring the degree of freedom enjoyed by every citizen. As Justice Thomas has noted: “[E]lections enable self-governance only when they include processes that ‘giv[e] citizens (including the losing candidates and their supporters) confidence in the fairness of the election.’” Republican Party v. Degraffenreid, 141 S.Ct. 732, 734 (2021) (Thomas, J. dissenting from denial of certiorari) (emphasis added). In seeking to enjoin aspects of Oregon’s election system, Petitioners asser t actual injury to their freedom due to the extraordinary confidence-destroying characteristics of that system, characteristics which chill honest public participation and make any political remedy via that same election system impossible to attain. Question Do Petitioners have standing to challenge Oregon’s vote-by-mail election system due to the loss of their freedom caused by Oregon’s confidence-destroying election processes?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Stephen J. Joncus
Joncus Law P.C.

For respondent
Benjamin Noah Gutman
Oregon Department of Justice

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. May 20 2024
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Apr 30 2024
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 5/16/2024.
  3. Apr 04 2024
    Waiver of right of respondent Lavonne Griffin-Valade to respond filed.
  4. Mar 11 2024
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due April 15, 2024)