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Arizona Libertarian Party, et al. v. Katie Hobbs, Arizona Secretary of State

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 17-16491 · judgment May 31, 2019


Certiorari denied · June 15, 2020
Pre-decision estimate: 7% cert probability (95% interval 5%–9%)

Before the decision, about 1.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for a Ninth Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition), and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Questions presented

This Court has long held that states may require a “showing of a significant modicum of support” as a prerequisite to granting a candidate or political party access to the ballot. Jenness v. Fortson, 403 U.S. 431, 442 (1971). In Jenness, this Court upheld the constitutionality of a statute requiring a showing of support equal to 5 percent of the voters eligible to vote for the candidate seeking ballot access, but it has never upheld a statute requiring a showing of support greater than that. The questions presented are:

  1. May a state require that a candidate seeking to run in the primary election of a ballot-qualified party demonstrate support from as much as 30 percent of the voters eligible to vote in the primary election?

  2. May a state require that a candidate seeking to run in the primary election of a ballot-qualified party demonstrate support from independent or unaffiliated voters, who are not eligible to vote in the primary election?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Oliver Barrett Hall
Center for Competitive Democracy

For respondent
Kara Marie Karlson
Arizona Attorney General's Office

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 2 conferences

Linked docket
19A367

Proceedings

  1. Jun 15 2020
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Jun 09 2020
    Reply of petitioners Arizona Libertarian Party, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  3. May 26 2020
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 6/11/2020.
  4. May 07 2020
    Brief of respondent Katie Hobbs, Arizona Secretary of State in opposition filed.
  5. Apr 27 2020
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including May 8, 2020.
  6. Apr 24 2020
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from May 1, 2020 to May 8, 2020, submitted to The Clerk.
  7. Mar 25 2020
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is further extended to and including May 1, 2020.
  8. Mar 24 2020
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from April 1, 2020 to May 1, 2020, submitted to The Clerk.
  9. Feb 26 2020
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including April 1, 2020.
  10. Feb 24 2020
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from March 2, 2020 to April 1, 2020, submitted to The Clerk.
  11. Jan 30 2020
    Response Requested. (Due March 2, 2020)
  12. Jan 29 2020
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 2/21/2020.
  13. Dec 09 2019
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due January 13, 2020)
  14. Oct 02 2019
    Application (19A367) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until December 8, 2019.
  15. Sep 30 2019
    Application (19A367) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from October 9, 2019 to December 8, 2019, submitted to Justice Kagan.